Research

Working paper

International beliefs network and currencies

With M. Croce, R. Colacito, and F. Gerding

We build a multicountry model in which international intermediaries finance bilateral trade imbalances despite trading frictions. Several intermediaries may finance the same imbalance while holding different views about each country’s future capacity to service external debt.

With no arbitrage, exchange-rate adjustments depend on the entire network of intermediary expectations. Intermediaries with greater local centrality carry more weight. We test the model’s predictions for exchange rates and current-account imbalances using Consensus Economics surveys for the G-10 currencies and China from 1990 to 2023.

Current project

Artificial intelligence and the transformation of skilled work

With M. Croce and S. Raymond

We develop a macroeconomic model of how AI changes skill formation and the allocation of workers across junior and senior roles. We study the effects on production, human capital, and career progression, as well as policies that account for the social value of training, data creation, and workforce development.

Published research

A Flexible Approach to Interference Cancellation in Distributed Sensor Networks

With M. Shamsi, N. Bagheri, and F. Marvasti · IEEE Communications Letters, 2021

This paper develops a weighting method for distributed sensor networks in which noisy or malfunctioning nodes can mislead their neighbors. In diffusion LMS algorithms, the method updates combination weights using each node’s recent performance, reducing the influence of unreliable nodes as network conditions change.